Resets and Returns

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We break down how VC & PE firms will reorient in the face of looming tariffs and bring you up to speed with the latest offerings of our portfolio companies. Plus, an engaging conversation on building consumer businesses in India.

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In a partial retreat from what had been shaping up as an aggressive trade war, the Trump administration has announced a 90-day pause on its sweeping tariff plan—temporarily halting the imposition of reciprocal duties on imports from over 70 countries. China, however, has not been spared, with tariffs on its goods still set to rise to around 125% (S&P Global Ratings).

JP Morgan Chase has maintained its prediction of a 60% chance of a recession even after Trump pressing a three month pause on the reciprocal tariffs.

The move signals a preventative step more than a reversal. Policymakers likely recognised that had these tariffs been enforced in full, the U.S. would face immediate economic fallout—slower growth, rising inflation, and a surge in unemployment. 

The Peterson Institute for International Economics predicted that U.S. GDP could dip by up to 0.9%, while Canada and Mexico were expected to shrink by 1.3% and 1.7% respectively. Prices on everyday goods, such as apparel, were forecasted to rise by 17%, and the Fed’s PCE Price Index to increase by 1.5% (Peterson Institute; Congressional Budget Office).

For low-income households, these inflationary pressures could mean annual losses between $1,700 and $3,800. Meanwhile, about 320,000 U.S. jobs are at risk from retaliatory tariffs abroad, and 30% of CFOs have named investment uncertainty as their primary concern (S&P Global; Deloitte).

From Global Volatility to IPO Slowdowns

This economic uncertainty has cast a long shadow over capital markets, including the IPO pipeline. Investors had initially anticipated a new wave of public listings, fuelled by expectations of a business-friendly U.S. administration. But those hopes have been steadily eroded by a mix of geopolitical volatility and market shocks.

The first blow came in January, when the emergence of Chinese AI app DeepSeek triggered a major sell-off in U.S. tech stocks. The announcement of tariffs followed shortly after, deepening fears of a broader market downturn. As of late March, global investment banking fees had fallen by 4.9% year-on-year, and deal volumes in 2025 have dropped 25%, marking a two-decade low (Reuters).

This has led high-profile companies like Klarna, StubHub, and Turo to shelve their IPO plans. Many had originally targeted listings as early as 2021, but have continued to wait for more stable market conditions (CNN, NYT).

Impact on India 

Interestingly, despite the volatility, India’s startup ecosystem is preparing for a sharp rise in IPO activity. More than two dozen startups are expected to go public in the coming months—up significantly from just 13 last year (Livemint). This momentum is largely driven by a slowdown in venture capital and private equity investments, which has nudged startups to look toward public markets for their next funding lifeline.

Yet, this optimism is tempered by caution. Many Indian startups are now recalibrating their IPO timelines—pushing them back by at least one or two quarters—as the global market downturn begins to affect domestic sentiment. The India VIX, a key measure of volatility, has spiked, signalling rising investor anxiety. In the private markets, the correction in public valuations has led to tougher negotiation dynamics. Investors are pushing back on pricing, and even large PE funds with 25–30% dry powder are delaying deal closures (TOI).

VCs Reorient Amid Liquidity Freeze

For VC and PE firms, IPO delays present a serious challenge—not just in terms of delayed liquidity, but also due to the broader ripple effects it creates in fundraising cycles. As public asset values drop, institutional LPs experience what’s known as the “denominator effect,” scaling back their commitments and shrinking the size of new funds (Tech in Asia).

The consequences go deeper than capital flow. A study by Chicago Booth shows that IPO delays can dampen innovation—with a 13% drop in patent filings and a 25% fall in globally granted patents post-listing. Without liquidity events, startups are often forced to slow R&D or pivot to shorter-term revenue goals.

The last time the U.S. imposed sweeping tariffs on Chinese imports—during the Trump administration in 2018–19—sectors most exposed to global supply chains bore the brunt of the impact. Hardware, aerospace, and advanced manufacturing faced significant investment pullbacks as an additional 25% tariff hit over $50 billion worth of industrial technologies, ranging from medical devices to chemical components (Matric). Those disruptions made these sectors notably less attractive for private capital in the short term. 

As a result, private market investors are recalibrating their strategies—gravitating toward businesses with less tariff exposure, such as healthcare and digital-first platforms with strong pricing power and limited physical supply chains (HarbourVest). The emphasis now is on durability over disruption.

💊 Speedy but thoughtful: Zeno Health rolled out its 50-minute medicine delivery service in the city, joining the quick commerce wave that’s taken over the country from groceries to domestic help. Customers can now place orders using Zeno Health’s mobile app, in-store, or over the phone with no minimum order value and zero delivery fees. “Our 50-minute delivery isn’t just about speed. Our customers receive genuine medicines, home delivered with up to 60% savings,” Co-founder and CEO Siddharth Gadia told the media.

🛵 🍟 Expanding: Internet restaurant Rebel Foods announced the opening of the 200th Wendy’s restaurant in the country at Elan Miracle Mall, Sector 82, Gurugram. 

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Spanning 1,142 square ft with seating for more than 30 customers , the new restaurant brings Wendy’s signature hamburgers, nuggets, and hot & crispy fires and iconic ‘frosty’ dessert to a wider audience. With this opening, Wendy’s is now avaliable across 50 cities in India, including 15 dine-in restaurants. 

This 200 store mark comes in just 40 months, reflecting the deep consumer love for fans across the country. 

Chris Conway, SVP, MD, APMEA for The Wendy’s Company told ET: “We are building a high-performing, differentiated QSR brand in India. Growing to 200 restaurants demonstrates that Wendy’s is winning in the market be delivering what customers want: fresh, famous food and exceptional customer services. We deeply appreciate our strong partnership with Rebel Foods.”

🗞️ ICYMI: We were in conversation with Cityflo to understand how the business is using agentic AI for enhanced efficiency in business operations.

AI-calling is one such use-case. When launching a new rote, AI autonomously reaches out to potential customers, detailing new timings and service details. FYI, the commuting service has launched a brand-new route from Mulund to Goregaon, covering Powai, Malad, and Kandivali.

Driver sourcing along with on boarding and re-engaging churned users are some of the functions that are helping the business manage their databases in a proficient manner.

Students from the Jerome Fisher Program in Management & Technology, Penn immersed themselves in conversations around building unique consumer businesses in India.

➡️ Struggling to find well-fitting clothes upon his return to India from the US, Akshay Narvekar dived straight into Mumbai's rich fabric markets. This experience sparked the creation of Bombay Shirt Company, marrying India's rich tailoring heritage with modern technology to deliver custom-made apparels.

➡️ Commuting in Mumbai continues to remain painful for many passengers. Rewind to 2015, when the problem was much worse. The only option were expensive cab-hailing services and the city’s overburdened local transport system (the local train carries 8x the amount of people it’s meant to at peak hours!)

Cityflo solved for the problem with an efficient proposition- providing commuters the ‘luxury of time’ through accesible and flexible rides.

➡️ Omnichannel pharmacy retail chain Zeno co-founder Siddharth Gadia spoke about the several ways in which the company is choosing to reduce the trust deficit in opting for unbranded generic medicines. Zeno educates customers on the molecular makeup of most alternative medicines encouraging them to keep their doctors in loop about their efficacy.

A strong and wide network of 111 pharmacies across Mumbai stands as a testament to their differentiated business model.

India’s used car industry is shifting gears—fast. According to the recent industry studies, the sector is projected to more than double in value to $73 billion by FY28. In this video, we unpack:

🚗 How e-commerce is fueling used car sales

📈 Why premium cars (₹10L+) are seeing faster growth

💬 Droom’s strategy to dominate the mid, premium & luxury segments

Watch Droom founder Sandeep Aggarwal in conversation with Equirus' Bhavesh Shah and Lightbox's Sandeep Murthy on how Droom is positioning itself to lead the charge.

Start-ups raise big pre-IPO rounds as tech listings gain momentum

Several new-age tech companies are aggressively raising large pre-IPO rounds as they prepare for potential listings by the end of the year. Lightbox was in conversation with the Hindu’s Business line discussing factors driving pro-IPO investments. Read here.

India’s Inc.’s queer tryst: Is corporate India ready to embrace the $200-billion opportunity?

India’s pride economy is estimated at $200 billion. How must investors approach this opportunity? “There has to be a concerted effort of knowing each other…I don’t know if it’s the right answer to fund on a different set of parameters, but I do think you need to expose every group to the same universe of information,” Sandeep Murthy told Fortune’s Ajita Shashidhar who gauges funding trends in India’s pink economy. Read more ⬇️ 

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